Jessica Irvine published in Fairfax on 11 June that JobKeeper was "timely". As an experienced crisis manager, I say it was 2 months and 1.4 million jobs too late.
On 24 June PM Morrison announced he is keeping to his quite firm policy of not giving the dole, JobSeeker, to the Arts community, but will support venues and events in the sum of $250 million (being 0.4% of the excess in the 30 March idiocy). The delay I was kicking him over? - 126 days as on 24/6. Coincidence? - I don't think so. I will continue to kick the PM over meanness, plagiarism, the on/off reversal (cruelty and hypocrisy), blundering without repair, and no focus on solutions.
That leaves 154 days before the tourism announcement - I reckon the rascals will bring that forward so I've laid the landmines.
It is time to have a debate, Jess being reasonable but some journalists being not. Frydenberg is clever at exploiting weak minds.
The PM and his cabal have cruel indifference to ethics and truth.
Throw away the tins of whitewash and start to manage our intergenerational economy professionally, adeptly and caringly.
The PM and Government, and the National (War) Cabinet are facing a challenge where there is
The stakeholders are rejecting wiser voices and refusing to repair their blunders, they are societal criminals worthy of
Dante's 8th Circle.
These words come the man who most changed the post-1918 world, Hayek's friend, whom Nugget Coombs persuaded
PM Menzies was the way to go:
The power to become habituated to his surroundings is a marked
characteristic of mankind. Very few of us realize with conviction the
intensely unusual, unstable, complicated, unreliable, temporary nature of the economic organization by which Western Europe has lived for the last half century. We assume some of the most peculiar and temporary of our late advantages as natural, permanent, and to be depended on, and we lay our plans accordingly.
On this sandy and false foundation we scheme for social improvement and dress our political platforms, pursue our
animosities and particular ambitions, and feel ourselves with enough
margin in hand to foster, not assuage, civil conflict in the European
family. Moved by insane delusion and reckless self-regard, the German people overturned the foundations on which we all lived and built.
But the spokesmen of the French and British peoples have run the risk of completing the ruin, which Germany began, by a Peace which, if it is carried into effect, must impair yet further, when it might have
restored, the delicate, complicated organisation, already shaken and
broken by war, through which alone the European peoples can employ themselves and live.
I've been saying the $130 billion was unfocussed, based on a dinner in the Bubble with Tin Soldiers who had reputations for failures, and we need to shift to incentives.
Now on 29 May, courtesy of Joyce Moullakis' revelations, the $40 billion small business loan scheme announced as part of the $66 b 2nd tranche was taken up to the amount of $1.41 billion - a small over-shoot by about 3,000%.
That was after, on 22 May, Morrison was proven a FOOL - $60 billion missing and 1/3 of Jobseekers don't exist = Gaetjens and Stephen Kennedy are, as usual, wrong, and stealing from me is having a fatal effect on the sneak thieves.
Phil Coorey, Paul Kelly and Dennis Shanahan and many others dressed up the dinner by swallowing absolute pond crap.
The pity is, Australia has a government system and corporate journalism that have failed our nation. Corona economic damage was avoidable but have they reported my analyses? - no, not once, not ever.
The media have missed the boat, not one journo picked the realpolitik.
Australia would have led the world had we had leadership and true, professional journalism.
The Morrison Government wandered in circles for over a month after a normal, competent governance culture would have acted on the early stages of novel Corona or COVID-19.
Here, it is concluded that history should have rolled out much more quickly as "scalable":
The Morrison Government assessed no options in a normal manner - the risk matrix here summarises the dreadful consequences for Australia of its typical rejection of accepted planning protocols.
That Government as with NSW's and then-PM Turnbull's have plundered my Intellectual Property and countervailing and avoidable criticism will be inflicted until they redress their transgressions.
On 17 June Bloomberg reported on moves in the USA that were anticipated here, where I was including fast payouts to corporates to reduce the costs of delays but with post-BAS recalculations and repayments where appropriate (which Morrison's jackals did not think of):
Permission to quote made.
Morrison is expecting changes to Jobs subsidies but again the bloody thing is being done in secret by the fools who keep recycling their mistakes and covering-up the consequences of their stupidity. This has got to stop - so says Frydenberg's favourite think-tank, the OECD:
From “OECD Framework for the Governance of Infrastructure” :
As I've been saying, the whole shebang has been undermined by stupid and corrupted politics and Tin Soldiers - https://sydneyimprovementpolitics.com/tin-soldiers-%26-conscripts
The SMH has posted a story, based on the work that Professors Angus Dawson, Wendy Rogers and Stacy Carter - heroes - have had to do, due to the likely shortage of hospital beds and paucity of beds and PP equipment.
DAMN AND BLAST THE NSW, US AND OTHER GOVERNMENTS - do we live in Stalin's Russia?
It is interesting that, as The Australian is saying the Coronacrisis is a myth, after saying the same about warming during the bushfires, Brookings has developed the Brookings-FT TIGER (Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery) which "makes it clear economic activity, financial markets, and private-sector confidence are all cratering. And if international cooperation remains at its current level, a far more severe collapse is yet to come".
Cyclical conditions were bearing down on Morrison/Frydenberg as 2019 was drawing to an end. IndeedHiring Lab was typical in its coverage on 20 December:
The Australian labour market is showing signs of fatigue, with employment growth softening and unemployment drifting up. The economy has struggled throughout 2019, growing at its slowest pace since the beginning of the global financial crisis and prompting concern over the outlook for jobs.
Calls are getting louder for greater fiscal stimulus in the form of programmes that promote economic growth and boost employment. Without such measures, the trends that defined 2019 may persist into the new year.
The Government was under notice to get off its derriere at about the time of the first reports of infection in China and America.
8 April 2020 - A Black Day in History
The PM and his fused buddy in embarrassment, the NSW Premier, somehow had the same thought: let's let COVID roam free so our cities can thrive but regions die. Yes, not follow the NZ example but let the incipient (untested) infected roam across regions and cities in a very "1984" manner. That follows.
Then we have a frequently-inept NSW minister (Don Harwin*) travelling to his holiday pad to escape the poxy CBD riffraff; and the SMH saying that the same government can ascertain that landlords pass on "savings" to tenants - which is a fascinating concept in a rapidly declining market.
That's bit Fanny Mae-ish. (*Bulldog pursuit of the move of the Powerhouse which is about as whacky as economics ever gets, save Perrottet’s Metro meanderings.)
More importantly, the Parliament met briefly to reinforce the pinball mentality of the Government, ignoring this advice yesterday:
Dear Representatives and, in Tim Wilson's words, "We should never forget that government does not run this country —Australians do".
Years of efforts to persuade have been rejected by the Bubble and now I have to resort to RPGs. In the last week, as previously, I tried to achieve a smooth and professional win-win, but no, as you well know.
Tomorrow’s short session must go ahead, we all know that, but we have to repair past mistakes as well as move forward on a proper basis.
Too much money has been wasted through shoddy politics and administration: the medical community is saying loudly that COVID-19 would not have been a problem had earlier bat virus serums been updated. Add that we lost licence and service incomes had we been as smart as CSL had been.
This pamphlet summarises a very sad picture of the state of Federal and NSW governance and ethics. Yet it is a fraction of the full book which demolishes Berejiklian, Perrottet, Morrison and Frydenberg Budgets and Mid-Year reviews. Then two more books, on planning blunders and on creative reconstruction of governance.
The Libs have already been accused of dishonestly reinventing the history of the Rudd stimulus - and remember, Dr Kennedy was in the middle of that (and other of my targets).
This is going outside the Coalition which is only necessary because Labor has taken a subservient role and the public interest discarded, in my view. There are no saints, no heroes - but remember Tim Fischer and my work with him which is in the pamphlet. (I have no hesitation in saying that NSW Labor was integral to the disintegration as I was the first Senior Executive Officer to be defenestrated by Premier Carr.)
Let’s do better, end unAustralian and brutal unfairness, heal national wounds, dramatically improve the employment of First Nation persons in reducing bushfire risk, and save children in misery and peril ……….
In other words, the PM should honour his recent undertakings as well as the tenets of his religion, Michael and Josh similarly.
And to the PM
I think you know exactly "what and why" I am doing this
There's nothing more important than to fix the mistakes in the spirit of your recent statements - were they real? - and make sure we move forward on a steady footing.
So here it is, if I hear nothing, I proceed. Capeesh?
So they ignored principles of probity, economy, due diligence and simple fairness.
Here's the realpolitik of their COVID logic:
This morning seemed like April 1 – there’s a story in the Washington Post that NZ’s strict approach worked; and reports in Nine/Fairfax and Newsmastheads that NSW and the PM Morrison have got their battered songbook out and are thinking of relaxing social distancing and travel restrictions.
Great minds might think alike but interlaced cabals don’t – they close the door and emerge well-tutored in the narrative.
The local journalists failed to delve into the facts in four respects.
First, the apparent easing of new confirmed cases simply represents closed borders but not what happened after the NSW Government let a ship-load of dying and very ill Corononavists disembark. Add an uncontrolled influx of air travellers and re-departure movements.
The “after” part is that the air and some of the sea-borne carriers spread all over the countryside.
Second, we have reports from America that the task is getting greater as the virus spreads into regions. One person’s trip across Victoria, using back roads, yesterday showed no Police surveillance of compliance with travel bans. Early retail raids to the regions from Melbourne (which are still happening at a lower level) undoubtedly spread the early contagion.
Third, the NSW Health Department’s website on the virus shows numbers of cases in all non-Metropolitan local government areas.
All are shown to have 1-4 cases, no variation.
That is suspect, especially as local sources on Facebook were reporting 5 cases in just one such LGA.
What the hell is going on? The appearance is that the schedule is flummery when we need reality. If the travel restrictions are not being enforced, how do our phantasisers know what is actually happening? Under the wishful 11% tolerance, extensive non-compliance can be assumed.
Finally, this whole disaster happened because governments failed to update the serums from previous bat virus crossovers, nor to replenish the stocks of protective and other equipment after the last crisis.
This numskulled incompetence reflects a long-term destruction of the skills and ethics of our society – not just public servants and politicians where the symptoms are palpable but also among the Fourth Estate. That is seen in the treatment of firefighters and farmers during the bushfires, the sports and other rorters over up to $4.02 billion (most not yet reported), and now the slip-sliding regulators.
Journalists have swum with that tide and so the community is going in circles, just when we started to get on-street compliance levels up. There is no room for optimism where COVID-19 is concerned, just the need for hard work and determination, clearly communicated.
The journalists and industry lobbies were so excited, what a big number!
Howard used to say, if we put one extra job in every SME, we'd eliminate unemployment. Morrison doesn't understand small business - a sample of tourism businesses showed that labour costs are c 40% of the total. So if employees are subsidised, what good is it if the business folds for general reasons?!?
Morrison includes SMEs but that is not where the focus is:
Employers (including not-for-profits) will be eligible for the subsidy if:
So how many are in each class and how many employees were going to be kept on anyway - the potential for rorting has been documented from earlier episodes.
No worries - but what exactly are the Performance Indicators for the
scheme, for the agencies, and for the recipients? The need for such is established in the pages on this website and at www.sydneybetrayals.me.
The Coalition bagged the Rudd scheme, which Stephen Kennedy helped mold, so is it simply a fact that history is repeating with Kennedy not disciplined for wrecking Western, South Western and South Eastern Sydney?
There has been a 360-degree failure in planning for, managing and reporting the infrastructure "pipelines" in suburbs, cities, regions, states and federally. This goes well beyond the personalities who dominate current headlines.
Unfortunately, scientists are reporting that the COVID-19 crisis would have been avoided had lessons and solutions from previous bat virus cross-overs been learned and implemented. That is a shocking realisation reflecting health infrastructure, generally defined.
Such laxity is embedded in the style, processes and structures of "government" as well as in journalism - not uniformly, of course. It extends into de-skilled politicians and agencies stealing my Intellectual Property without attribution or payment.
This counterfactual analysis is offered for discussion and debate, including:
I agree with many of the principles of stimulus and virtually none of the mechanisms, to the extent that there have been continuing closed-door deliberations, absence of analyses and Performance Indicators (open cheque books), and even blunders such as the NSW small business grants movement at $10,000 which is meaningless and probably should be closer to $100,000 if jobs are going to be maintained (below).
Rudd siphoned billions into corporates under his mega-stimulus which Morrison is mirroring albeit even bigger.
Same guy, both places, Aus thought the secret meeting was a story but it is a tragedy they have succoured.
April Fool joke - Aus fails and then lifts
Paul Kelly and Dennis Shanahan published pure drivel about a closed-door meeting over the $130 billion bullshit deal which is what I've been attacking and will continue to do so. They have had the info but ignored it. What can I do to wake them up - or they on an ideological sled to infamy?
Then Janet blows them out of the water. Combet repeatedly refused to talk to me about this - https://thinkinglogicallogistics.info/ey-defects-%26-distortions.
And still does. Janet's words are spot on
I'll go further - their investments are in non-performing assets which also damage the economy.
Then the SMH reveals that the NZ PM has released bio-medical data that the numskulls in the Canberra Bubble have refused to release, double DUH. Locals where I live, the "silent ones", are furious about Morrison's lack of understanding of SME dynamics. No surprise Frydenberg doesn't, he's a merchant wanker.
31 March '20 Morrison announces Xth stimulus
Do not let Morrison off the hook - pensioner payments were to flow from the 31st, today - are they???
Journos are praising him for the Wage Subsidy which is dependent on the Govt to "finalise the details of its $130-billion JobKeeper program. Parliament will have to be recalled to pass legislation to put the government's policy into law, with money not set to start flowing until May" - forgive me but doesn't that mean 31 May ie June and too bloody late.
There is no acknowledgement of my progressive criticisms of the stimulus stages and indeed
So this package seems to be an indicator of my successful crypto-politics Vs the dumb recycling of mainstream journalistic trivia.
I sent out a Tweet last night reminding that "the devil is in the detail". Journalists are failing again - please bloody well listen, think, then ACT. I'm in a tourism region dominated by SMEs and, as in Newcastle, I am determined to save them Vs Lazy Sussan and Michael McC (the prize goose).
One journalist is in wonderment at the % of the Fed Budget that stimulus represents - we are still so far behind the USA and Morrison is going to be whacked eternally for
* hibernation is completely unacceptable to a professional regional economist
He either agrees to this or I hound him into the Baskervilles.
Now, pollies and journos, listen to me, WE HAVE TO REPAIR OUR GOVERNANCE STRUCTURES & PROCESSES
Liam Maddox - "We should have had vaccine already: Australian expert who cracked virus code"
The Australian professor who cracked the genetic code of the virus that causes COVID-19 said the world should have been working on a coronavirus vaccine for years but governments had become "complacent" about bat coronaviruses after SARS was defeated.
Edward Holmes, a researcher based at the University of Sydney who is considered among the world's leading experts on the virus's genetics, evolution and origin, said a pandemic had been inevitable but governments refused to take the threat seriously.
"It is no surprise another coronavirus emerged in humans. We have been monitoring these viruses. They've been jumping species boundaries," Professor Holmes said. "We knew this was going to happen.
"Bats have been carrying these viruses for millennia. It's not them that's changed, it's us – the way we interact with them."
SARS-CoV-2 is the third coronavirus from bats to jump into humans in the past 20 years, after SARS and MERS, which killed hundreds.
PM Morrison has thrown around a bucket of different promises and expectations. These need to be clarified as there are many, many complaints that we are too slow, too soft, insufficiently resourced, and mixed-up as to which industries and in which places we should subsidise and support so as to best
The PM talks about maintaining the economy. He has to prove he is, not just saying it. Much of his items are contracted-out to banks and states, without Performance Indicators and outcome-measurement systems.
Morrison's support is generally much lower than the US, UK and others governments have offered their people:
The "wage subsidy plan" is still talk. The PM has surrounded himself with inexpert PR-spinners and proven wastrels. All his thinking is done in a cave. Finance Minister Cormann keeps saying "in a few days". Morrison needs to plainly and publicly repair his ethics, probity and governance - lest we spiral into avoidable further and iterative crises.
Labor is hardly better - right in pushing to do more, wrong to not reverse its past infrastructure mistakes and support regional and SME employment.
"Individual support" is the main avenue for living continuance. It is not working - slow roll-out, IT crashes, long queues, inadequate compared with living costs.
The NSW Government has put $500 million into regional airlines which are, generally, not operating. The staff, especially pilots, have no alternative options so won't wander too far. Should their support be limited to the "individual" schemes. The Minister's chief of staff is ex-flak to Qantas
I live in a region which has no large employers and is orientated to domestic tourism. Tasmania is - largely - such a place. Little or no relief has been seen and the Canberra Bubble is Sleepy Hollow.
Highly labour-intensive and needed for recovery, seen no relief apart from individual support. Tourism-support sectors such as airports, hotels and motels, camping and caravan sites, regional logistics and speciality shops will be hard-hit under current schemes.
"Tourism" is a misnomer. Much of the sector is dominated by large, even multinational, enterprises, in designated locations. Much of the employment is spread across the regions and there is more - the Grey Nomad trek is of great significance for 75,000 or more citizens / families. Closing caravan parks was not smart in that it has moved activity from cleanable and controllable premises to (where).
The cracks in the financial safety of the sporting codes is not to be underestimated: our country needs its codes, clubs and sports.
There are opinions quoted herein, that past closed-room discussions distorted priorities so that our capacity to respond to "theoretical" scenarios and to actual disasters is handicapped. More IC and recovery beds are needed, PPE supplies are shamefully scarce, mental health facilities are being built on the back of the bushfire programs.
Community awareness has been hindered by varying and confusing signals. Closing or not schools has been a shambolic mess of a non-process. The PM had the gall to ring the ABC to complain about the clearest voice in Australia, Dr Norman Swan.
Deborah Snow is a top-class pinch hitter from the SMH. indeed she and Jacqueline Maley are joys to read.
They do not cover the efficiency of process nor the context of policy, but do the psychology of Morrison's EgoSphere and politics of failure.
And oh wow, Morrison is cooked.
28 March '20 SMH Deborah Snow, Has Australia's coronavirus response been too slow off the mark? ~
Professor Raina MacIntyre who heads biosecurity at the Kirby Institute in Sydney remains alarmed by Canberra’s dogged determination to proceed by way of incremental steps – what officials call “scaleable, proportionate and sustainable” measures. “The window to have acted decisively has grown a lot smaller,” she says. “Because we have only been testing people with symptoms, we remain on a similar trajectory to the United States and Italy.”
Morrison cannot do the medicine or the economy any good, with his confusion, verbituration and deceit.
Only in the EgoSphere, with Captain Gaetjens at the controls, could Scott Morrison present a new business survival strategy, which is
He appears to have a background in tourism, which is one of his three revival sectors. He sounds like a failed backyard gardener. Economic geographer? - of Mars????
He closes pubs, clubs and van parks in the inland, on the coasts and on the Grey Nomads' trek route.
If large dollars go to big corporates, what are the Performance Indicators? Employ more, how many ...? Keep on all ...?
As Dr Henry Ergas put it
... this crisis is not a proof of machismo, nor an exercise in forcing us to do penance for our sins. Rather, it is a test of common sense, civility and courage: the common sense to avoid taking decisions that we may regret for decades to come; the civility, in the term’s old meaning of “civil righteousness”, to be mindful of what we owe each other and prudent before inflicting costs on people who will struggle to bear them; and most of all, the courage to calmly confront, and ultimately defeat, an enemy who, as the Treasurer put it, flies no flag and has no face.